Feeds Nature

A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

  • Jones, K. E. et al. Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451, 990–994 (2008).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Civitello, D. J. et al. Biodiversity inhibits parasites: broad evidence for the dilution effect. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci USA 112, 8667–8671 (2015).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Halliday, F. W., Rohr, J. R. & Laine, A.-L. Biodiversity loss underlies the dilution effect of biodiversity. Ecol. Lett. 23, 1611–1622 (2020).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rohr, J. R. et al. Towards common ground in the biodiversity–disease debate. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4, 24–33 (2020).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Johnson, P. T. J., Ostfeld, R. S. & Keesing, F. Frontiers in research on biodiversity and disease. Ecol. Lett. 18, 1119–1133 (2015).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Keesing, F. et al. Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature 468, 647–652 (2010).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Cohen, J. M., Sauer, E. L., Santiago, O., Spencer, S. & Rohr, J. R. Divergent impacts of warming weather on wildlife disease risk across climates. Science 370, eabb1702 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rohr, J. R. et al. Frontiers in climate change-disease research. Trends Ecol. Evol. 26, 270–277 (2011).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Altizer, S., Ostfeld, R. S., Johnson, P. T. J., Kutz, S. & Harvell, C. D. Climate change and infectious diseases: from evidence to a predictive framework. Science 341, 514–519 (2013).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rohr, J. R. & Cohen, J. M. Understanding how temperature shifts could impact infectious disease. PLoS Biol. 18, e3000938 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Carlson, C. J. et al. Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk. Nature 607, 555–562 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Halstead, N. T. et al. Agrochemicals increase risk of human schistosomiasis by supporting higher densities of intermediate hosts. Nat. Commun. 9, 837 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Martin, L. B., Hopkins, W. A., Mydlarz, L. D. & Rohr, J. R. The effects of anthropogenic global changes on immune functions and disease resistance. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1195, 129–148 (2010).

  • Rumschlag, S. L. et al. Effects of pesticides on exposure and susceptibility to parasites can be generalised to pesticide class and type in aquatic communities. Ecol. Lett. 22, 962–972 (2019).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Allan, B. F., Keesing, F. & Ostfeld, R. S. Effect of forest fragmentation on Lyme disease risk. Conserv. Biol. 17, 267–272 (2003).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Brearley, G. et al. Wildlife disease prevalence in human‐modified landscapes. Biol. Rev. 88, 427–442 (2013).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Rohr, J. R. et al. Emerging human infectious diseases and the links to global food production. Nat. Sustain. 2, 445–456 (2019).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bradley, C. A. & Altizer, S. Urbanization and the ecology of wildlife diseases. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 95–102 (2007).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Allen, T. et al. Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases. Nat. Commun. 8, 1124 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Sokolow, S. H. et al. Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: a global analysis. Lancet Planet. Health 6, e870–e879 (2022).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Young, H. S., Parker, I. M., Gilbert, G. S., Guerra, A. S. & Nunn, C. L. Introduced species, disease ecology, and biodiversity–disease relationships. Trends Ecol. Evol. 32, 41–54 (2017).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Barouki, R. et al. The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: emerging research needs. Environ. Int. 146, 106272 (2021).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Nova, N., Athni, T. S., Childs, M. L., Mandle, L. & Mordecai, E. A. Global change and emerging infectious diseases. Ann. Rev. Resour. Econ. 14, 333–354 (2021).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Zhang, L. et al. Biological invasions facilitate zoonotic disease emergences. Nat. Commun. 13, 1762 (2022).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Olival, K. J. et al. Host and viral traits predict zoonotic spillover from mammals. Nature 546, 646–650 (2017).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Guth, S. et al. Bats host the most virulent—but not the most dangerous—zoonotic viruses. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, e2113628119 (2022).

    Article 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Nelson, G. C. et al. in Ecosystems and Human Well-Being (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) Vol. 2 (eds Rola, A. et al) Ch. 7, 172–222 (Island Press, 2005).

  • Read, A. F., Graham, A. L. & Raberg, L. Animal defenses against infectious agents: is damage control more important than pathogen control? PLoS Biol. 6, 2638–2641 (2008).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Medzhitov, R., Schneider, D. S. & Soares, M. P. Disease tolerance as a defense strategy. Science 335, 936–941 (2012).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Torchin, M. E. & Mitchell, C. E. Parasites, pathogens, and invasions by plants and animals. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2, 183–190 (2004).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bellay, S., de Oliveira, E. F., Almeida-Neto, M. & Takemoto, R. M. Ectoparasites are more vulnerable to host extinction than co-occurring endoparasites: evidence from metazoan parasites of freshwater and marine fishes. Hydrobiologia 847, 2873–2882 (2020).

    Article 
    CAS 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Scheffer, M. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society Vol. 16 (Princeton Univ. Press, 2020).

  • Rohr, J. R. et al. A planetary health innovation for disease, food and water challenges in Africa. Nature 619, 782–787 (2023).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Reaser, J. K., Witt, A., Tabor, G. M., Hudson, P. J. & Plowright, R. K. Ecological countermeasures for preventing zoonotic disease outbreaks: when ecological restoration is a human health imperative. Restor. Ecol. 29, e13357 (2021).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Hopkins, S. R. et al. Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control. Lancet Planet. Health 6, e694–e705 (2022).

    Article 
    PubMed 
    PubMed Central 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Mitchell, C. E. & Power, A. G. Release of invasive plants from fungal and viral pathogens. Nature 421, 625–627 (2003).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Chamberlain, S. A. & Szöcs, E. taxize: taxonomic search and retrieval in R. F1000Research 2, 191 (2013).

  • Newman, M. Fundamentals of Ecotoxicology (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group, 2010).

  • Rohatgi, A. WebPlotDigitizer v.4.5 (2021); automeris.io/WebPlotDigitizer.

  • Lüdecke, D. esc: effect size computation for meta analysis (version 0.5.1). Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1249218 (2019).

  • Lipsey, M. W. & Wilson, D. B. Practical Meta-Analysis (SAGE, 2001).

  • R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing Vol. 2022 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2020); www.R-project.org/.

  • Viechtbauer, W. Conducting meta-analyses in R with the metafor package. J. Stat. Softw. 36, 1–48 (2010).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Pustejovsky, J. E. & Tipton, E. Meta-analysis with robust variance estimation: Expanding the range of working models. Prev. Sci. 23, 425–438 (2022).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Lenth, R. emmeans: estimated marginal means, aka least-squares means. R package v.1.5.1 (2020).

  • Bartoń, K. MuMIn: multi-modal inference. Model selection and model averaging based on information criteria (AICc and alike) (2019).

  • Burnham, K. P. & Anderson, D. R. Multimodel inference: understanding AIC and BIC in model selection. Sociol. Methods Res. 33, 261–304 (2004).

    Article 
    MathSciNet 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Marks‐Anglin, A. & Chen, Y. A historical review of publication bias. Res. Synth. Methods 11, 725–742 (2020).

    Article 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Nakagawa, S. et al. Methods for testing publication bias in ecological and evolutionary meta‐analyses. Methods Ecol. Evol. 13, 4–21 (2022).

    Article 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Gurevitch, J., Koricheva, J., Nakagawa, S. & Stewart, G. Meta-analysis and the science of research synthesis. Nature 555, 175–182 (2018).

    Article 
    ADS 
    CAS 
    PubMed 

    Google Scholar
     

  • Bates, D., Mächler, M., Bolker, B. & Walker, S. Fitting linear mixed-effects models using lme4. J. Stat. Softw. 67, 1–48 (2015).

  • Mahon, M. B. et al. Data and code for ‘A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease’. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8169979 (2024).

  • Mahon, M. B. et al. Data and code for ‘A meta-analysis on global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease’. GitHub github.com/mahonmb/GCDofDisease (2024).


  • Fonte original Nature.com

    Artigos relacionados

    Deixe um comentário

    O seu endereço de e-mail não será publicado. Campos obrigatórios são marcados com *

    Botão Voltar ao topo

    Adblock detectado

    Por favor, considere apoiar-nos, desativando o seu bloqueador de anúncios